How 2016 Is Like 1967

I think I understand the Russian Collusion hysteria on the political Left.  It lies in bone-deep incredulity, and we have seen this sort of thing before.

In the "Six Day War" between Israel and her Arab neighbors, the Arabs became convinced that Americans were directly involved in the fighting, especially the American air force.  And they were convinced of this, not out of delusion, but for specific, technical, perfectly understandable, and wrong, reasons.

The Arabs knew exactly what planes the Israelis were flying and how many.  Every plane needs some number of hours of maintenance on the ground for every hour of flight.  E.g. (I am making up the numbers), a plane might need 6 hours on the ground for every hour in the air.  These numbers are widely known for each type of plane and you can calculate the theoretical maximum number of sorties an air force can operate in one 24-hr period.  This is an essential calculation for every staff officer drawing up operational plans, whether you are flying the sorties or defending against them.

Based on perfectly good Arab calculations, the Israelis were flying way more sorties than was theoretically possible.  There had to be more planes than the Israelis possessed, and they could have come only from the U.S.

There was nothing wrong with the logic, but the Arabs were not aware of Israeli capacity for innovation.  At the time, the Arabs could not know that the Israelis made modifications to their combat aircraft and, with excellent training of their ground crews, the Israelis were able to dramatically reduce ground time.  All else equal, if you can halve the ground time you can double the sorties.  It's a big deal.

No doubt, most of the Arab military officers now understand this.  But, for most people, ignorant of the technical issues, American complicity is easier to understand.  And it is a far more comforting narrative than the superior technical abilities of a contemptible enemy.  The myth of American complicity is very much alive and well in the Arab world.  Indeed, it has only grown in the telling.

I think something very like this happened in 2016.  The Trump team had a superior campaign strategy, not well understood by the Democratic Party at the time.  Combined with an especially bad Democratic candidate, Trump pulled off a victory the Democrats were sure was impossible.  In military parlance, besides an innovative strategy, Trump was "lucky in his enemies".

But, if you are the Democratic Party and Trump is the contemptible enemy, outside help is a far more comforting narrative, and it grows in the telling.  Many people on the Left sincerely believe the Mueller investigation will discover what they "know" has to be true, and they will take that belief to the grave, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

The American Embassy in Jerusalem

I guess I just wasn’t paying attention.  Only recently I learned that some real people think the American embassy move to Jerusalem is a bad idea.  I don’t mean the anti-Semites, or sufferers of Trump Derangement Psychosis, or Left-wing pundits, I mean normal people.  Even an Israeli friend thinks the move is a needless provocation that endangers her family.  I think it is important to understand why these sincere and decent people are wrong and President Trump is right.

First of all, the Muslims cannot be provoked.  Their mission is to destroy Israel, they will kill as many Jews as necessary to do it, and they have been undeterred since 1947.  So, the comment about unnecessarily provoking the Muslims is especially disturbing coming from an Israeli because Israelis cannot afford to misjudge their enemy.

Nonsense aside (and there is just so much of it whenever the subject is Israel), the one great danger to my friend and her family is the never-ending war between Israel and her Arab neighbors.  Today, Israel is secure because she is strong and her enemies are divided and weak, but what will be ten years from now?  A hundred years from now?  There are more than 400 million Arabs surrounding Israel, and the day they get their shit together will be Israel’s last day on earth.  Time is not on her side and Israel needs to make peace now, while she can do it from a position of strength.  But, how to do that?

All wars end in only one of two ways.  Either one side is comprehensively defeated, or they both realize victory is impossible and continued hostilities are pointless, and too expensive in blood and treasure.  There is nothing else.

The great modern example of the first case is World War II, which ended only when the Germans were pulverized, and the Japanese were incinerated, into submission.

The great modern example of the second case is the U.S. in Vietnam.  The Americans won every battle, including the notorious and much misunderstood Tet Offensive of 1968, which was a military disaster for the North Vietnamese.  And yet, although devastated, the North Vietnamese clearly and convincingly signaled their intent to continue the war.  The Americans concluded that victory, if it could ever be achieved, would come at a price they were not willing to pay, so they packed up their entrenching tools and went home.

I should mention that the North Vietnamese were able to continue the war because they got enormous political support world-wide and enormous material support from China and the USSR.  So, the war was not just the U.S. against N. Vietnam, it was the U.S. against N. Vietnam and half the world.

Even in the Middle East, Egypt treated for peace with Israel only after the “Yom Kippur War”.  Although Egypt could execute a complete tactical surprise and battlefield advances at the beginning, in days their 3^rd Army was surrounded and nearly annihilated in the Sinai Desert.  And, due to some astonishing “out-of-the-box” thinking by Ariel Sharon, elements of the Israeli Army crossed the Suez Canal, out-flanked Egyptian forces, and stopped a mere 100 km (60 mi) from a defenseless Cairo.  Explaining the stop, one Israeli soldier quipped, “What would we do with Cairo?” but Anwar el-Sadat understood the threat.

Israeli arms convinced Sadat he could not win on the battlefield.  Shortly thereafter, Sadat signed the first of two agreements with Israel and, in 1977, made his historic visit to Jerusalem for a peace treaty with Israel.

In all of human history, here is what never happened.  It has never happened that one belligerent says to the other, “Stop being a dick”.  Whereupon the other side slaps their forehead in realization and says, “You know what?  You’re right.”  And then they kiss and make up and live happily ever after.  So, if your strategy for peace depends upon one side or the other being persuaded by a smooth-talking Obama-like figure, don’t bet the safety and security of your children on it.

Which brings us to Arab-Israeli wars.  The Arabs lose every battle but continue the war.  Why do they do it?  How is that even possible?

The Arabs are neither stupid nor crazy.  They continue to fight because they think they can win, and they are reasonable in that expectation.  Like the N. Vietnamese before them, the Arabs get enormous political support world-wide, and they get enormous material support from Muslim countries, even some European ones.  They see Israel’s hand being restrained, even by America, putatively her closest ally.  They, too, can read a map (Israel is a speck in an ocean of Arabs), and their memories are long.  The Arabs remember it took them 200 years to expel the Crusaders, and they are willing to spend another 200 years, if that is what it takes, to expel the Jews.

The Arabs will never stop.  Unless they are convinced that victory is impossible, and they are made to endure too much pain at too high a cost.  I’m sorry, but there is no other way.

To the Arabs, the American embassy move to Jerusalem is a clear signal the political climate is changing against them.  Of course, the move counts for little, by itself, but it is not nothing.  And, if it is the first of many signals that they are losing support, and that Israel is gaining it, the Arabs will make peace with Israel.

How can I be so sure?  Think of it this way:  we know how wars have ended, in all other places in all other times.  For 70 years, we have tried a different strategy to end the Arab-Israeli war, and this strategy has failed, utterly.  I think we should use the one strategy that has the highest chance for success:  the Arabs must be convinced victory is impossible.

The American embassy move sends exactly the right signal.